US troops in South Korea will be put on high alert due to nuclear tests that North Korea recently conducted on its territory. General Curtis Scaparrotti, Commander of the US Army Group in the Republic of Korea, made such a statement on Monday when he visited the command of the US 7th Fleet and the Air Force headquarters in Osan along with Chairman of the Committee of Chiefs of Staff of South Korea Lee Sung-jin.
“It is advisable to make efforts to maintain the highest level readiness for the long term...
I want you to support the highest degree readiness for a long time, as we have planned exercises ahead, ”said Scaparrotti, quoted by the South Korean agency Yonhap.
The day before, an American B-52 strategic bomber flew over the territory of South Korea, as well as the border of the state with the DPRK. Thus demonstrating the solidarity of Washington with Seoul in this confrontation. The plane took off from the US air base on the island of Guam and flew over the South Korean province of Gyeonggi-do, after which it left the airspace of the Republic of Korea. According to the Yonhap news agency, on board the military aircraft were missiles with nuclear warheads, as well as bombs capable of hitting underground bunkers and other military strategic facilities located in the DPRK.
North Korea conducted another nuclear test on January 6. According to Pyongyang, the North Korean military carried out the detonation of a hydrogen bomb to protect against the threat from the United States. This was followed by another aggravation of the confrontation between the two Koreas. Two days after the explosion, Seoul resumed audio propaganda in the areas bordering North Korea using loudspeakers. It is aimed both at residents of border settlements and at soldiers of the North Korean army. Pyongyang also began similar broadcasts of propaganda audio programs. Propaganda was halted by both sides in the fall of 2015 as part of an agreement to ease military tensions and re-establish a program to reunite families separated by the 1950-1953 war.
Meanwhile, China expressed a negative assessment of the next round of Korean confrontation. Chinese spokesman Hong Lei on Monday urged all parties to maintain restraint and not escalate the situation with their actions.
“We are closely following the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. All parties must work together to avoid further aggravation of the situation. We hope that the parties will take prudent actions to maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia,” said Hong Lei, commenting on the resumption of propaganda by Seoul. Hong Lei reiterated that China strongly opposes North Korea's nuclear tests and will make every effort to bring the North Korean nuclear issue back into the negotiation process. In addition, according to the Chinese agency, the issue of holding six-party talks with the participation of Japan, South Korea, Russia, China, North Korea and the United States on the issue of normalizing the situation on the Korean Peninsula is currently being discussed.
Meanwhile, the DPRK leader congratulated the Supreme command staff army of the country with the successful testing of the hydrogen bomb. “The test explosion of the hydrogen bomb is a step aimed at reliably protecting the peace on the Korean Peninsula from the threat nuclear war backed by US-led imperialists,” said the youngest sitting head of state in the world, quoted by Xinhua.
Korean scholar, specialist in the Far East, employee of the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute Far East in an interview with Gazeta.Ru, he expressed the opinion that the likelihood of the confrontation escalating into big war there is, but it is small. “There are enough pragmatists in both Koreas who make decisions who understand that war is not needed. But
South Korea has grown a generation of young officers who want to fight. This is exacerbated by the fact that most of these military are radical Protestants by religion.
Therefore, the current game of muscles can lead to conflict, which will occur as a result of irrational factors. When there is cheating on both sides in the style of “shoot first, then figure it out”, it is likely that with an incomprehensible stirring of the bushes, they will shoot from all types of weapons, but they will no longer be able to stop, ”the expert said. According to Asmolov,
if a war does start, it will most likely not be started by the DPRK.
“We like to say that the North Korean army is the fourth largest in the world in terms of numbers. But the armed forces of the Republic of Korea are in this list in sixth place. It spends 25 times more on defense than the North. In addition, Seoul and Washington have an agreement under which, in the event of aggression by the northerners, the United States not only provides assistance to the southerners, but takes their army under its command and directs the actions of the Republic of Korea against Pyongyang, ”he said.
According to the scientist, in this regard, the DPRK's nuclear weapons should be considered precisely as a means of deterrence: “According to available information, North Korea does not have a miniature explosive device in order to put it in a bomb or warhead.
And when you have nuclear weapons the size of a cottage, you can only lure the enemy deep into your territory and use it - you won’t be able to use it in any other way, ”Asmolov noted.
He stressed that in its current state, the DPRK army is a serious force, but it is unlikely that it will be able to achieve victory in the war with South Korea due to America's support for Seoul. “The DPRK can offer serious resistance to the enemy - the northerners are ready for a defensive war. However, they are unlikely to win this war. It must also be taken into account that the iron curtain works both ways: we know little about the DPRK, but they also do not have a very correct idea of \u200b\u200bwhat is happening outside their state. On the other hand, there is information that South Korea and the United States have developed plans for the complete destruction of the DPRK, they are working it out in the course of numerous joint exercises. In this regard, Pyongyang considers nuclear weapons as the cheapest means of deterrence, since trying to catch up with Seoul technologically in conventional means will be economic suicide for North Korea, ”the expert noted.
According to him, Pyongyang's goal in this conflict is not to humiliate its southern opponent, but to conclude a peace treaty with him. “From the point of view of South Korea, there is no DPRK, but there is a gang that temporarily took over five northern provinces. They even have governors of the northern provinces, who, in case of success in a possible war, should pack their bags and go to manage the territories recaptured from the enemy. The United States, by the way, also has no diplomatic relations with North Korea. America's interests in Pyongyang are represented by Sweden," the expert noted.
The head of the School of Oriental Studies, Alexander, also believes that it is not yet likely that the crisis on the Korean Peninsula will develop into a serious war between Seoul and Pyongyang.
“Everything is developing according to the standard scenario so far, so far this conflict is being used by both sides in their own interests.
North Korea demonstrates to its people the determination to uphold its policy to the end, and the not very charismatic Kim Jong-un is trying to increase his rating against this background.
Seoul, on the other hand, shows determination to defend its interests and relies on the United States in this. All this plays against China's policy in the region, relegates it to the background as the main negotiator between the two Koreas. It also turns the Korean peninsula into a constant hotspot where the US troop buildup is building up. This also plays against the interests of Beijing, ”said the specialist. He nevertheless notes that there is still a small risk of war, as a permanent crisis can suddenly escalate into an uncontrollable conflict. "It will noticeably bring down regional economy, will cause economic damage to both South Korea and China. Russia will receive another conflict at its borders,
and only the United States will benefit from all this, ”Maslov is sure.
According to him, the armed forces of the DPRK are well prepared and have high morale, although they are armed with outdated weapons of the 1970s, so Seoul will strive not to get involved in a war with the DPRK without the participation of the United States. “In the event of a major armed conflict, the United States can block the supply of any goods to the DPRK and, most likely, will provide assistance with military advisers and weapons to Seoul. But whether they will directly participate in the war is a very big question. So far, South Korea is not completely sure about this, ”the specialist noted.
The Korean War of 1950-1953 ended with the signing of an armistice between Pyongyang and Seoul. In 2013, the DPRK offered its southern neighbor to sign a peace treaty, but so far this has not happened. Since 1953, the armies of both sides have not participated in a major war or armed conflict.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption "The reckless outrage of US militant fanatics is nothing more than a dying bluff," write North Korean media
“How the war in Korea could start and end” - The Economist recently published an article with this title, which detailed a hypothetical war between North Korea and the United States and their allies in March 2019.
In short, the chronicle of the war looks like this: to intimidate allies conducting large-scale maneuvers, the North Korean regime promises to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile with a powerful detonation in the atmosphere, so that the world will finally stop doubting that it has not only nuclear weapons, but also delivery vehicles.
This is unacceptable for Donald Trump. He demands from his military that they stop the launch so that Kim understands that they will not joke with him, but not to do it too harshly so that Kim does not have to start a real war in response.
A North Korean missile is destroyed on the launch pad; in response, Pyongyang, avoiding a direct military clash, sends hordes of saboteurs to the South; military operation.
Kim, realizing that the game is lost, gives the command to launch nuclear missiles. Most of them are intercepted, but some reach the goal and turn Seoul into radioactive ruins.
The Americans respond with smart nuclear bombs. Kim Jong-un and most of the North Korean leadership turns into plasma along with the bunkers in which they were hiding. End.
A number of important details in this apocalyptic picture look, at the very least, unreliable. For example, it is difficult to imagine the silence of China, on whose southern borders, in fact, the war is unfolding, and where not only clouds of radioactive ash will go, but also the remnants of the 25 million people of North Korea who survived the cataclysm. It is difficult to assume that Moscow will remain indifferent to what is happening.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Both Kim and Trump are unpredictable personalitiesHowever, apart from the technical details, main idea articles - that the development of a conflict to a nuclear stage can be the result of a set of random factors and the ambitions of leaders - one can agree.
Moreover, Trump, and especially Kim, has a reputation for being unpredictable people.
Is everything so sad, and should we seriously fear the "Korean apocalypse"? BBC columnist Mikhail Smotryaev spoke with a Korean scholar, an associate of the Institute for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Australian national university Leonid Petrov.
Leonid Petrov: I agree that both Kim and Trump are unpredictable people. But they are only figures leading certain groups of forces.
Behind Kim are hundreds, and most likely thousands of people from the North Korean elites, with their own interests and desire to both survive and get rich. Naturally, nuclear Armageddon is not included in their plans.
North Korea is such an island of opposition to the United States, but most likely, psychological resistance.
Trump, too, has counterbalances that will prevent him from issuing orders that will not be properly received by the US political elites.
Actually, we are already seeing this: if Trump cannot lift sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea, how can he start a war against the recommendations of his advisers?
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption North Korea repeats its threat to launch missiles at the Pacific Ocean, where the US military base is located on the island of GuamEven if we assume that Kim and Trump decided to go to war with each other, we must remember that they are in different weight categories.
North Korea, one of the poorest nations in East Asia, lacking electricity, fuel and food, cannot compete with the beefy US military backed by hundreds of thousands of South Korean soldiers.
North Korea is such an island of opposition to the United States, but most likely, psychological resistance.
She cannot resist American missiles and aircraft, which is why she needs a weapon, the mere presence of which will prevent a situation in which she can be attacked. And no one will go to war against North Korea.
BBC: However, it cannot be denied that the situation on the peninsula may get out of control against the will of its participants. Actually, journalists describe this "snowball" scenario. In addition, Pyongyang is easier - in North Korea, it seems, there is no concept of "unacceptable damage", while in the United States or South Korea no one is ready to sacrifice thousands of soldiers and, especially, civilians for the sake of taming the obstinate Kim. Any missile that arrives in Guam, in Seoul, in Tokyo is already unacceptable damage. And then - more. Can the same happen?
L.P.: I think no. The situation on the Korean Peninsula has been rather tense for almost 70 years, since the beginning Korean War. Naturally, it can get out of control if someone presses the "wrong" button, or if someone misjudges the actions of the other party.
For example, if someone's nerves fail, and the North Korean air defenses shoot down the B1-B aircraft of the US Air Force, which regularly flies from Guam to South Korea to scare the North Korean radars.
In this situation, the question immediately arises of what to do next, and it will arise not from Trump, but from the South Korean president. The current president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, is a sane person, he is ready to discuss anything with Kim Jong-un, so long as there is no war.
But there were also more radical presidents in South Korea, for example, Lee Myung-bak, under whom the northerners sank a South Korean corvette, and six months later they launched an artillery strike on the South Korean island. Seoul responded to this with its artillery, but this did not lead to war.
North Korea has been a permanent garrison on duty for more than 60 years.
Everyone understands that the war on the Korean Peninsula is a dead end. Firstly, in economic terms, and secondly, what if the southerners win it? What will they do with 25 million hungry, poorly educated, rather aggressive compatriots who do not understand anything in modern life?
In North Korea, no one is going to start a war at all, because they are well aware that they will lose it. Losing the war means that the leader, his family and the families of the leaders of the country will either be destroyed or they will have to flee. I doubt they were ready for this.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption US President Donald Trump is an emotional person. North Korea obviously evokes strong emotions in him...I also do not expect nuclear cataclysms: the North Koreans have nothing to answer.
They have several weak charges with a power of Hiroshima or less, they did not conduct real tests of missiles and warheads that go into the stratosphere and successfully return back.
Pyongyang's statements that it has such missiles and warheads should be treated with restraint. In reality, the North Koreans have nothing to answer, except for promises.
These promises are in principle sufficient to contain the situation. The Americans also do not always keep their word: for example, the nuclear armada, which was planned to be sent to the Sea of Japan. This was not done. Trump understands that Russia's Pacific Fleet is right next door, not to mention China, and North Korea has enough submarines to control those waters.
Image copyright Reuters Image caption Launch of Hwaseong-14 intercontinental ballistic missileThere is a lot of talk about the US striking, about landing on the North Korean coast, about infiltrating Kim's bunker and destroying the North Korean leadership, operational plans are being developed - but in reality there are practically no agents in North Korea, and any special forces deployed there will not achieve anything.
North Korea has been a permanent garrison on duty for more than 60 years.
This is also true with regard to possible attempts by Pyongyang agents to sow panic in South Korea - they are also used to catching North Korean spies there.
Northerners are markedly different from southerners. In every city there are pay phones with a number where to report North Korean submarines and suspicious people. With a price list, by the way: for a submarine - a reward of 100 thousand dollars, for a spy - 30 thousand.
In general, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is much more stable than it might seem.
BBC: So far, China has remained outside the boundaries of our discussions, perhaps the only lever of influence on North Korea, if only because 90% of the country's trade turnover falls on the Celestial Empire. By the way, when voting on new sanctions against Pyongyang, China, like Russia, contrary to custom, supported them. No one in Beijing needs the situation when the Korean Peninsula has turned into a desert, nor does it need 25 million northern refugees, with whom it is also unclear what to do. How extensive is the Chinese toolkit for containing the southern neighbor?
L.P.: The levers of influence on Pyongyang have always been rather limited, but now they have actually exhausted themselves.
Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing are very cool, perhaps the worst in the history of Korean-Chinese relations. Part of the reason is that China is very arrogant towards Kim Jong-un, he was never invited to Beijing, in response, Kim conducts nuclear and missile tests despite warnings from Beijing. At the political level, relations are complex and almost conflicting.
Economic relations are also difficult. Trade is on the decline, again at the initiative of China. North Koreans continue to enrich themselves at the expense of China - they send their workers there, impose sanctions on Chinese investments, China, in turn, restricts imports from North Korea.
So I'm afraid there's nothing China can do in this case. All that's left is to try to rein in the North Korean regime through the UN Security Council. But North Korea has been under sanctions for nearly 70 years, and it doesn't really change anything.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Any serious complication on the Korean Peninsula will cause a collapse in financial marketsIn addition, Pyongyang can always negotiate with Russia, or even with South Korea. Tens of thousands of North Korean workers and enterprises work in Southeast Asia and generate foreign exchange earnings. The Middle East, Eastern Europe - the northerners have room to maneuver without China.
If China completely cuts off oil supplies and trade in food and manufactured goods, of course, this will make it much more difficult to fuel the elites and markets, but I think in this case Russia will take its place.
Russia and China compete in North Korea both for access to port facilities and for access to mines, to minerals, and Korea is full of all sorts of rare earth metals that both the Japanese and South Koreans will gladly buy.
The North Korean economy has been growing for the past five years, and I attribute this to the "parallel development" policy, economic and military, pursued by Kim Jong-un.
The more terrible North Korea, the more active Seoul and Tokyo are buying American weapons, expensive missile defense systems.
This makes sense: any nuclear weapon saves a significant amount of money for the regime, which is no longer puzzled by the question of how many soldiers to keep on the demarcation line, how many new planes or tanks to produce.
They have one or two nuclear devices. And one nuclear charge is able to prevent any idea of overthrowing the regime from the outside, and all tactics are based on this. Therefore, it is very important for Kim Jong-un to be reminded of this.
The Americans, on the other hand, are very fond of talking about the danger posed by the Kim regime and its nuclear missile program, because it is very beneficial for them to keep their regional allies - South Korea and Japan - in fear.
Image copyright AFPThe more terrible North Korea, the more active Seoul and Tokyo are buying American weapons, expensive missile defense systems.
That is, Pyongyang plays the role of a regional scarecrow, which fits perfectly into the doctrine of the continuation of the split in Southeast Asia along ideological lines.
Although cold war allegedly ended, but there are two Chinas that do not always agree with each other, there are two Koreas, a peace treaty has not yet been signed between Russia and Japan.
I don't think it's in the interests of the United States to lose a weak, scary and convenient opponent like North Korea.
War on the Korean Peninsula: how big is the threat?
The article contains a comprehensive analysis of the situation that developed on the Korean Peninsula as a result of the crisis in inter-Korean relations in 2013. The military-technical, strategic and political aspects of the confrontation are considered.
M.: Russian the University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov, 2011.
Zaitsev Y. K., Perfilieva O. V., Rakhmangulov M. R. et al. M.: Publishing House of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2011.
The manual provides an analysis of the role of international organizations and institutions in the implementation of international development assistance policies, primarily the UN and the institutions of the UN system, the World Health Organization, the G8 and the G20, the International Monetary Fund and the institutions of the World Bank Group, the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Contribution international institutions in development is viewed through the prism of their place in the global architecture of development assistance, interaction with national governments, donors and partners of development programs, the history of the formation of development issues on the agenda of organizations and institutions. Separately, the manual provides recommendations for Russian Federation in terms of developing a national strategy for promoting international development in terms of existing experience of cooperation and interaction with key players in international development assistance policy.
The guide is intended to be used within the framework of training courses, advanced training courses for development assistance professionals, or awareness raising programs for a wide Russian audience in the field of development and international development assistance.
If Russian nationalism did not win at the beginning of the last century, it will certainly not win now. Then he had immeasurably better opportunities for promotion to leading positions.
The analysis of modern society, permeated with media, is conducted from the standpoint of an ethnomethodological approach and is an attempt to answer the cardinal question: what are the observed orderings of events broadcast by mass mediators. The study of rituals proceeds in two main directions: firstly, in the organizational and production system of the media, focused on constant reproduction, which is based on the transmission model and the distinction between information / non-information, and, secondly, in the analysis of the perception of these messages by the audience, which is the realization of a ritual or expressive pattern that results in a shared experience. This signifies the ritual nature of modern media.
The book contains complete and comprehensive information on the history Imperial Russia- from Peter the Great to Nicholas II. These two centuries became the era when the foundations of Russia's might were laid. But it was the same time that caused the fall of the empire in 1917. The text of the book, sustained in the traditional manner of chronological presentation, includes fascinating inserts: “ Characters"," Legends and rumors "and others.
Humanity is going through a change of cultural and historical eras, which is associated with the transformation of network media into the leading means of communication. The consequence of the “digital split” is a change in social divisions: along with the traditional “haves and have-nots”, there is a confrontation between “online (connected) versus offline (not connected)”. Under these conditions, traditional intergenerational differences lose their significance, belonging to one or another information culture, on the basis of which media generations are formed, turns out to be decisive. The paper analyzes the diverse consequences of networking: cognitive, arising from the use of "smart" things with a friendly interface, psychological, generating network individualism and increasing privatization of communication, social, embodying the "paradox of an empty public sphere". The role of computer games as "deputies" of traditional socialization and education is shown, the vicissitudes of knowledge, which is losing its meaning, are considered. In conditions of excess information, the most scarce human resource today is human attention. Therefore, new business principles can be defined as attention management.
This scientific work uses the results obtained during the implementation of project No. 10-01-0009 "Media rituals", implemented within the framework of the HSE Science Foundation Program in 2010-2012.
Expert: the situation is developing according to an extremely negative scenario
North Korea continues to be one of the main hotbeds of tension in the world. Trump's coming to power in the United States only exacerbated the situation, and the fact that the relatively peaceful Moon Jae-in became president in South Korea did not help either. At the end of December, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on new sanctions against the DPRK. This step was regarded in Pyongyang as an "act of aggression", declaring its intention to further develop its nuclear missile program. What awaits the Korean Peninsula in the new year 2018?
North Korean H-Bomb: No Longer a Myth
Most of the sanctions imposed by the world community on North Korea are, as a rule, associated with the growing military activity of Pyongyang. Of course, the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un is also accused of violating human rights and infringing on various freedoms. But the main cause for concern is precisely nuclear missile tests.
2017 was a turning point in this sense: Pyongyang not only conducted numerous missile launches (including an intercontinental one), but also tested a hydrogen (thermonuclear) bomb on September 3. Moreover, according to the North Korean military, it can also be placed on a launch vehicle.
Recall that the successful thermonuclear test Pyongyang reported back in 2016, but at that time experts doubted the data received, considering the DPRK's statements to be just bravado.
The test in September 2017, in turn, left practically no doubt among experts: North Korea has hydrogen weapons, and, according to Kim Jong-un himself, is ready to use them.
External forces, trying to contain the development of the DPRK nuclear missile program in 2017, actually contributed to this as never before. Relations between Pyongyang and Washington, already extremely tense, have deteriorated since US President Donald Trump took office. Having chosen the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a "whipping boy", the owner of the White House even devoted a significant part of his first speech to the UN General Assembly to the DPRK. He also reached personal insults, the answer to which was not long in coming - Kim Jong-un called Trump a "mad dog", a "psychopath" and promised to "tame him with fire."
The coming to power in South Korea of Moon Jae-in did not defuse the situation. The new president has repeatedly made it clear that Seoul is not going to unquestioningly act in accordance with the course of Washington, and also expressed his intention to take measures to defuse relations with his northern neighbors. However, the growing activity of the DPRK seems to have deprived Moon Jae-in of his pacifist illusions.
Will the US apply the "Syrian scenario" in North Korea?
In these conditions, more and more often it comes to a probable preventive strike on North Korea by the United States. However, very conflicting signals are coming from Washington on this score.
On the one hand, President Trump has repeatedly stated that he is ready to "pacify" Kim Jong-un. Pointing to China's unwillingness to participate in this, the American leader stressed: if necessary, the United States will cope on its own.
This version is supported by the events of 2017 in another part of the world - in Syria. As you know, in early April, the US military launched dozens of Tomahawk missiles on Syrian territory. Despite the fact that a number of countries, including Russia, condemned this move, it, in fact, remained unanswered.
This, according to American experts - and not from among the "hawks" - may inspire Trump to take a similar step regarding the DPRK. Analysts are worried about the consequences of such measures: North Korea is not torn apart civil war Syria, and Pyongyang already has something to answer Washington with.
Fortunately, the foreign and military policy of the United States is determined not only by Donald Trump.
For example, when adopting sanctions against the DPRK, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley regularly emphasizes that Washington is not looking for war, but is forced to contain Pyongyang by all available means.
The fact that the United States considers a diplomatic solution to the North Korean issue as the main option was also stated by the head of the Pentagon, James Mattis. And the head of the US Strategic Command, General John Hyten, even said that he was ready to challenge Trump's possible order for a nuclear strike on the DPRK.
All this, despite the formidable statements of the US President, gives hope that Washington will not enter into an open military conflict with Pyongyang. Neither will Kim Jong Un. The reason, according to analysts, is simple: of course, in the event of a strike against the United States or South Korea, North Korea will be able to inflict damage on its sworn enemies, but retaliatory measures will absolutely lead to the fall of the regime in the DPRK, and Pyongyang does not need this. Nevertheless, in the current stalemate, not only the deliberate actions of one of the parties can lead to war, but also a banal tragic accident, the probability of which in the conditions of saber-rattling (both Pyongyang and Washington and Seoul) is extremely high.
Is Pyongyang ready for concessions?
IN this moment the situation around the Korean peninsula is developing according to an extremely negative scenario, Georgy Toloraya, director of the Center for Russian Strategy in Asia at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with MK.
“Unfortunately, the Russian side did very little to somehow reduce the effect of the new sanctions adopted by the UN Security Council at a meeting on December 22,” the expert believes. - Moscow managed to defend only the Hasan-Rajin joint transport project (the decision to implement it was made back in 2000 during a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Il; we are talking about upgrading the previously created railway track from Russia to the North Korean port of Rajin and creating there is an integrated transport terminal for the transfer of goods. - "MK"). Thus, Russian influence on the Korean Peninsula, I believe, will weaken.
I do not think that in the short term there will be any drastic steps or some provocations on the part of Pyongyang in response to new sanctions. Because it is clear that after this, things could go as far as a complete economic blockade of the DPRK. And this, I hope, North Korea does not need now.
Nevertheless, the situation after the adoption of the resolution by the UN Security Council, of course, did not improve, and the new sanctions did not bring the solution of the Korean issue closer.
In my opinion, in 2018 the situation should take on a very definite character: either there will be a war, or it will be possible to somehow reconcile.
North Korea, however, is unlikely to make concessions on issues related to its nuclear missile program. But it is quite possible that it will be possible to find some workarounds and options that will allow the United States to make concessions while saving face.
One way or another, you will have to live next to a North Korea that has nuclear weapons at its disposal - but arranged in such a way that it is peaceful coexistence, not conflict. And I hope that during 2018 some solution in this sense will still be found.”
